The focus on the Chinese automotive industry as depicted in U.S. media seems to sway every few weeks from potential growth market (China is now the world's second vehicle market with 5.92 million units sold in 2005), to a competitive threat in the North American market, and back again.
These scenarios are obviously not mutually exclusive... although it might be difficult for any one company to maintain a dual focus based on the necessary investments involved. Several news items over the past few days caught my eye, and I think help paint a clearer picture of things to come:
Item #1: Several North American port cities area already moving to woo Chinese automakers. Representatives from the ports of Tacoma, Washington and Vancouver, Canada visited Shanghai in June to better understand the needs of exporters.
Item #2: Ocean carrier China Shipping has leased 4 ships capable of transporting cars. The ships are to be delivered in 2008... this seems to be "the" year when things will begin to really move.
Item #3: The parallel to Korean manufacturers Kia and Hyundai's path to success in the U.S. is cited more and more. Kia began operations in 1994 with sales of 12,000 cars, and reached 275,000 in 2005. Hyundai has grown in similar fashion. The main obstacle to U.S. acceptance of Chinese cars will be consumer quality expectations, say some experts, but didn't they say the same about Kia and Hyundai?
Item #4: Three new Chinese carmakers are planning to exhibit at the 2007 Detroit Auto Show, adding to last year's sole participant, Geely Automotive.